Questions
Chloe plans to invest some of her savings into two blue-chip stocks, namely Stock A and...

  1. Chloe plans to invest some of her savings into two blue-chip stocks, namely Stock A and Stock B. Suppose that the mean and standard deviation of the annual return of Stock A are 5% and 5%, respectively, and the mean and standard deviation for the annual return of Stock B are 10% and 10%, respectively. In this investment portfolio, Chloe will put 50% of her money into Stock A and 50% of her money into Stock B.

    1. (i) [3 marks] If the correlation coefficient of the two stock returns is -0.2, do you think that this investment portfolio can achieve diversification? (for this one, i think corr is the indicator of diversification, in this question, Corr=-0.2<0, which means achieve diversification. But the answer gives: "V[R]=26.25, cannot achieve portfolio diversification". please help, thx!

    2. (ii) [1 bonus mark] In order to achieve portfolio diversification, what advice will you give Chloe?

In: Statistics and Probability

The Bogard Corporation produces three types of bookcases, which it sells to large office supply companies....

The Bogard Corporation produces three types of bookcases, which it sells to large office supply companies. The production of each bookcase requires two machine operations, trimming and shaping, followed by assembly, which includes inspection and packaging. Each type requires 0.4 hours of assembly time, but the machining operations have different processing times, as shown in the table below (in hours per unit). Each machine is available for 150 hours per month, and the current size of the assembly department provides capacity of 200 hours. Each bookcase produced yields a unit profit contribution as shown below.

Standard Narrow Wide

Trimmer 0.2 0.4 0.6

Shaper 0.6 0.2 0.5

Profit $8 $6 $10

Write a linear optimization model (i.e., identify decision variables, objective function and constraints)

In: Math

Assume that the real risk-free rate of return, r*, is 1%, and it will remain at...

Assume that the real risk-free rate of return, r*, is 1%, and it will remain at that level far into the future. Also assume that maturity risk premium on Treasury bonds increase from zero for bonds that mature in one year or less to a maximum of 2%, and MRP increases by 0.2% for each year to maturity that is greater than one year – that is, MRP equals 0.2% for two-year bond, 0.4% for a three-year bond, and so forth. Following are the expected inflation rates for the next five years:

Year

Inflation Rate

2018

1%

2019

1.5%

2020

2%

2021

2.5%

Compute the interest rate for 1, 2, 3, and 4-year bond.

If inflation is expected to equal 3% every year after 2021, what should the interest rate be for 5- through 20-year bond?

Draw a graph of the yield curve.

In: Finance

Table below shows monthly beer sales at Gordon’s Liquor Store in 2017. The sales manager had...

Table below shows monthly beer sales at Gordon’s Liquor Store in 2017.

The sales manager had predicted that January 2017 beer sales would be 950.

Month

Sales

Jan 2017

900

Feb

725

Mar

1000

Apr

800

May

750

Jun

1200

Jul

1000

Aug

1100

Sep

1250

Oct

1050

Nov

1400

Dec

1600

Jan 2018

    ??  

  • Forecast beer sales needed for January 2018 using the moving average with 3 periods.

  • Forecast beer sales needed for January 2018 using an exponential smoothing method with α = 0.2 and α = 0.9

  • What is the best method to forecast the beer sales according to MSE. (moving average with 3 periods, exponential smoothing method with α = 0.2, or exponential smoothing method with α = 0.9)

In: Math

Five years ago, a company was considering the purchase of 77 new diesel trucks that were...

Five years ago, a company was considering the purchase of 77 new diesel trucks that were 15.45% more fuel-efficient than the ones the firm is now using. The company uses an average of 10 million gallons of diesel fuel per year at a price of $1.25 per gallon. If the company manages to save on fuel costs, it will save $1.875 million per year (1.5 million gallons at $1.25 per gallon). On this basis, fuel efficiency would save more money as the price of diesel fuel rises (at $1.35 per gallon, the firm would save $2.025 million in total if he buys the new trucks).


Consider two possible forecasts, each of which has an equal chance of being realized. Under assumption #1, diesel prices will stay relatively low; under assumption #2, diesel prices will rise considerably. The 77 new trucks will cost the firm $5 million. Depreciation will be 25.2% in year 1, 38.48% in year 2, and 36.34% in year 3. The firm is in a 40% income tax bracket and uses a 10% cost of capital for cash flow valuation purposes. Interest on debt is ignored. In addition, consider the following forecasts:


Forecast for assumption #1 (low fuel prices):


Price of Diesel Fuel per Gallon

Prob. (same for each year)

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

0.1

$0.79

$0.92

$1.01

0.2

$0.99

$1.13

$1.12

0.3

$1.12

$1.2

$1.3

0.2

$1.31

$1.44

$1.44

0.2

$1.4

$1.57

$1.6


Forecast for assumption #2 (high fuel prices):


Price of Diesel Fuel per Gallon

Prob. (same for each year)

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

0.1

$1.22

$1.51

$1.7

0.3

$1.3

$1.71

$2.02

0.4

$1.82

$2.33

$2.49

0.2

$2.21

$2.5

$2.79


Required: Calculate the percentage change on the basis that an increase would take place from the NPV under assumption #1 to the probability-weighted (expected) NPV.


Answer
% Do not round intermediate calculations. Input your answer as a percent rounded to 2 decimal places (for example: 28.31%).



Note: The educational purpose of this problem targets the students’ ability to read + follow instructions.



Further Information (solution steps):



Step (1): Calculate the annual expected price of diesel per gallon under each assumption, based on the probabilities outlined in the inputs section.

Step (2): Using the annual expected fuel prices calculated in step (1), determine the increase in annual savings created by the proposed efficiency for each assumption.

Step (3): Find the increased cash flow after taxes (CFAT) for both forecasts, based on the annual increase in fuel savings determined in step (2) as the increase in earnings before depreciation and taxes (EBDT), and the starting point from which profit is calculated for each assumption. As part of this step, you must establish annual depreciation (remember: depreciation is a noncash charge).

Step (4): Considering the increased annual CFAT produced in step (3), calculate the NPV of the truck purchases for each assumption, based on the discount rate (cost of capital) indicated in the inputs section

Step (5): In view of the outcomes produced in step (4), estimate the combined NPV weighed by the probability of each assumption.

Step (6): Finally, calculate the percentage difference hypothesizing that an increase took place starting from the NPV for assumption #1 to the combined NPV worked out in step (5).

Q1) you will notice as we proceed that the steps are truly consecutive (none can be fulfilled before the step before is complete). therefore, there is truly nothing about the question that's difficult. it's a long question, not a difficult one.

NOTE #1: IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT THAT YOU DO NOT ROUND INTERMEDIATE CALCULATIONS BECAUSE THIS QUESTION IS DESCRIBED BY SEVERAL STEPS … ROUNDING UPON ROUNDING CREATES OVER-ROUNDING AND THEREBY A CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE BY THE TIME YOU REACH THE FINAL STEP.

NOTE #2: 10M GALLONS ARE THE SAME ACROSS ALL EXAM SCRIPT FORMS. SAVINGS % VARY.

NOTE #3: IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT YOU DO NOT USE ZEROS AS YOU MULTIPLY × 10 M GALLONS. IT WILL ONLY MAKE YOUR WORKINGS MORE CONFUSING. IF SOMETHING GOES WRONG AT A LATER STAGE, IT WILL BE MUCH EASIER FOR YOU TO IDENTIFY WHERE EXACTLY.

NOTE #4: AS CAN BE OBSERVED IN THE CALCULATIONS ABOVE, SAVINGS ARE CONVERTED FROM % TERMS TO $ TERMS. EACH OF THESE $ ANNUAL SAINGS IS A DIFFERENTIAL (ANNUAL) VALUE IN AN OF ITSELF, DESCRIBED BY A POSITIVE SIGN. AFTER ALL, SAVINGS ARE INFLOWS.

NOTE #5: INTEREST EXPENSE IS IGNORED ACROSS ALL EXAM SCRIPT FORMS.

NOTE #6: THE $5M COST IS THE SAME ACROSS ALL EXAM SCRIPT FORMS. ANNUAL DEPRECIATION % VARIES.

NOTE #7: IMAGINE THAT BY NOW YOU ARE DEALING WITH ZEROS AFTER MULTIPLYING × 10 M GALLONS EARLIER. NOW, YOU WOULD BE FURTHER MULTIPLYONG × $5M COST…


NOTE #8: REMEMBER THAT WE ARE OUTLINING DIFFERENTIAL VALUES HERE AS EXPLAINED IN NOTE #4, THAT’S WHY EACH AFTER-TAX CASH FLOW (ATCF) IS OBSERVED AS AN INCREASE.


NOTE #9: ALSO RECALL FROM PROVISION (ii) ABOVE THAT $ ANNUAL DEPRECIATION MUST BE ADDED BACK TO THE INCREASE IN NET INCOME (HERE, ATCF) ON ACCOUNT THAT DEPRECIATION IS A NON-CASH EXPENSE ITEM.


NOTE #10: IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT THE NPV FOR THE LOW FUEL PRICES SCENARIO IS GOING TO BE NEGATIVE (IN OTHER WORDS, OUTFLOWS > INFLOWS). THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND FOR THE UPCOMING STEP.

NOTE #11: EVEN THOUGH YOU ARE FREE TO USE THE APPENDIX, QUITE CLEARLY, APPENDIX B IN THIS CASE, AS WE ARE DEALING WITH SINGLE AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT YOU USE THE FORMULA ON ACCOUNT THAT YOU SHOULD NOT BE ROUNDING INTERMEDIATE CALCULATIONS. BESIDES, WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT 3 YEARS ONLY. 

NOTE #12: BECAUSE EACH SCENARIO HOLDS A 50% CHANCE OF TAKING PLACE, THE GEOMETRIC MEAN IN THIS PARTICULAR CASE = THE ARITHMETIC MEAN, SUCH THAT BOTH NET PRESENT VALUES CAN BE ADDED, THEN ÷ 2. 


In: Accounting

Northwood Company manufactures basketballs. The company has a ball that sells for $32. At present, the...

Northwood Company manufactures basketballs. The company has a ball that sells for $32. At present, the ball is manufactured in a small plant that relies heavily on direct labor workers. Thus, variable expenses are high, totaling $22 per ball, of which 69% is direct labor cost. Last year, the company sold 30,000 of these balls, with the following results: Sales (30,000 balls) $ 960,000

Variable expenses 660,500

Contribution margin 300,000

Fixed expenses 210,000

Net operating income $ 90,000

Required: 5. Refer to the original data. The company is discussing the construction of a new, automated manufacturing plant. The new plant would slash variable expenses per ball by 31.25%, but it would cause fixed expenses per year to DOUBLE. If the new plant is built, what would be the company’s new break-even point in balls? (Do not round intermediate calculations.) 6. Refer to the data in (5) above. a. If the new plant is built, how many balls will have to be sold next year to earn the same net operating income, $90,000, as last year? (Do not round intermediate calculations.) b-1. Assume the new plant is built and that next year the company manufactures and sells 30,000 balls (the same number as sold last year). Prepare a contribution format income statement (Do not round your intermediate calculations.) b-2. Compute the degree of operating leverage. (Do not round intermediate calculations and round your final answer to 2 decimal places.)

In: Accounting

Suppose a batch of metal shafts produced in a manufacturing company have a variance of 6.25...

Suppose a batch of metal shafts produced in a manufacturing company have a variance of 6.25 and a mean diameter of 206 inches.

If 90 shafts are sampled at random from the batch, what is the probability that the mean diameter of the sample shafts would differ from the population mean by more than 0.3 inches? Round your answer to four decimal places.

In: Statistics and Probability

Let the number of tropical cyclones per year in the Atlantic Basin (?) have a discrete...

Let the number of tropical cyclones per year in the Atlantic Basin (?) have a discrete uniform between 5 to 15; i.e. ? ∈ {5, 6, … , 15} with ?X(?) = 1 /11. If each cyclone can turn into a major hurricane with probability 0.3; find the expected number of major hurricanes per year (?). Hint: Use the Law of Interated Expectation; ?[?] = ?[?[?|?]].

In: Statistics and Probability

The average number of mosquitos in a stagnant pond is 80 per square meter with astandard...

The average number of mosquitos in a stagnant pond is 80 per square meter with astandard deviation of 12. If 36 square meters are chosen at random for a mosquitocount, find the probability that the average of those counts is more than 81.6 mosquitosper square meter. Assume that the variable is normally distributed.

A)0.3%B)21.2%C)78.8%D)28.8%

In: Statistics and Probability

Estimate the heat loss rate from a person who can be approximated as a cylinder of...

Estimate the heat loss rate from a person who can be approximated as a cylinder of diameter 0.3 m and height 1.8 m. The (clothing) surface temperature is 23 °C and the cross wind flow velocity is 15 m/s. The ambient temperature is –23 °C. Neglect end effects from the cylinder. Assume steady state.

In: Mechanical Engineering