Risky Cash Flows

The Bartram-Pulley Company (BPC) must decide between two mutually exclusive investment projects. Each project costs $5,250 and has an expected life of 3 years. Annual net cash flows from each project begin 1 year after the initial investment is made and have the following probability distributions:

BPC has decided to evaluate the riskier project at a 12% rate and the less risky project at a 9% rate.

1. What is the expected value of the annual cash flows from each project? Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to the nearest dollar.

   	Project A	Project B
   Net cash flow	$	$

   What is the coefficient of variation (CV)? (Hint: σ_B=$6,521.89 and CV_B=$0.81.) Do not round intermediate calculations. Round σ values to the nearest cent and CV values to two decimal places.

   	σ	CV
   Project A	$
   Project B	$

2. What is the risk-adjusted NPV of each project? Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to the nearest cent.

   Project A:		$
   Project B:		$

3. If it were known that Project B is negatively correlated with other cash flows of the firm whereas Project A is positively correlated, how would this affect the decision?

   This would tend to reinforce the decision to -Select-acceptrejectItem 9 Project B.

   If Project B's cash flows were negatively correlated with gross domestic product (GDP), would that influence your assessment of its risk?

   -Select-YesNo

Risky Cash Flows

The Bartram-Pulley Company (BPC) must decide between two mutually exclusive investment projects. Each project costs $7,250 and has an expected life of 3 years. Annual net cash flows from each project begin 1 year after the initial investment is made and have the following probability distributions:

BPC has decided to evaluate the riskier project at a 13% rate and the less risky project at a 8% rate.

1. What is the expected value of the annual cash flows from each project? Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to the nearest dollar.

   	Project A	Project B
   Net cash flow	$	$

   What is the coefficient of variation (CV)? (Hint: σ_B=$6,522 and CV_B=$0.81.) Do not round intermediate calculations. Round σ values to the nearest cent and CV values to two decimal places.

   	σ	CV
   Project A	$
   Project B	$

2. What is the risk-adjusted NPV of each project? Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to the nearest cent.

   Project A		$
   Project B		$

3. If it were known that Project B is negatively correlated with other cash flows of the firm whereas Project A is positively correlated, how would this affect the decision?

   This would tend to reinforce the decision to -Select-acceptrejectItem 9 Project B.

   If Project B's cash flows were negatively correlated with gross domestic product (GDP), would that influence your assessment of its risk?

   -Select-YesNoItem 10

Risky Cash Flows

The Bartram-Pulley Company (BPC) must decide between two mutually exclusive investment projects. Each project costs $8,000 and has an expected life of 3 years. Annual net cash flows from each project begin 1 year after the initial investment is made and have the following probability distributions:

BPC has decided to evaluate the riskier project at a 11% rate and the less risky project at a 9% rate.

1. What is the expected value of the annual net cash flows from each project? Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to nearest dollar.

   	Project A	Project B
   Net cash flow	$	$

   
   What is the coefficient of variation (CV)? Do not round intermediate calculations. (Hint: σ_B=$6,158 and CV_B=$0.78.)

   	σ (to the nearest whole number)	CV (to 2 decimal places)
   Project A	$
   Project B	$

2. 
   
3. What is the risk-adjusted NPV of each project? Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answer to the nearest dollar.

   Project A		$
   Project B		$

4. 
   
5. If it were known that Project B is negatively correlated with other cash flows of the firm whereas Project A is positively correlated, how would this affect the decision?
   This would tend to reinforce the decision to -Select-acceptreject Project B.
   
   If Project B's cash flows were negatively correlated with gross domestic product (GDP), would that influence your assessment of its risk?
   -Select-YesNo

The Bartram-Pulley Company (BPC) must decide between two mutually exclusive investment projects. Each project costs $5,000 and has an expected life of 3 years. Annual net cash flows from each project begin 1 year after the initial investment is made and have the following probability distributions:

BPC has decided to evaluate the riskier project at a 11% rate and the less risky project at a 10% rate.

1. What is the expected value of the annual cash flows from each project? Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to the nearest dollar.

   	Project A	Project B
   Net cash flow	$	$

   What is the coefficient of variation (CV)? (Hint: σ_B=$6,890 and CV_B=$0.84.) Do not round intermediate calculations. Round σ values to the nearest cent and CV values to two decimal places.

   	σ	CV
   Project A	$
   Project B	$

2. What is the risk-adjusted NPV of each project? Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to the nearest cent.

   Project A		$
   Project B		$

3. If it were known that Project B is negatively correlated with other cash flows of the firm whereas Project A is positively correlated, how would this affect the decision?

   This would tend to reinforce the decision to -Select-acceptrejectItem 9 Project B.

   If Project B's cash flows were negatively correlated with gross domestic product (GDP), would that influence your assessment of its risk?

   -Select-YesNoItem 10

Wall Street Journal

- July 11, 2011

By

ALEXANDRA BERZON

"Red Carpet for the Chinese - Hotels Add Menu Items, Translators, Other Services for

Growing Travel Segment"

The traditional Chinese rice porridge, called congee, will soon become a staple of hotel

breakfast buffets in America and abroad as U.S.-based hotel chains compete for

growing numbers of Chinese travelers.

The Chinese dish is part of a set of broader initiatives to attract Chinese travelers at

hotel giants Hilton Worldwide Inc. and

Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide

. This summer, both hotel companies are rolling out hospitality standards centered on items

that cater to Chinese guests in hotels across the world

Congee breakfast is among the Chinese-style

amenities at the Hilton in San Francisco's

financial district.

Starwood plans to announce a program

Monday called "Starwood Personalized

Travel," which will require the company's

1,051 hotels—including the Sheraton, Westin

and W chains—to offer a set of specific

services for Chinese travelers, including in-room tea kettles, slippers and translation

services, in addition to new menu items.

The program will start at 19 hotels in cities such as New York, London, Mexico City,

Seoul and San Francisco, where Chinese business is rapidly growing. The program will

cover all Starwood hotels by the end of next year, the company said.

Hilton on Monday plans to announce a program for its Hilton Hotels & Resorts brand

called "Hilton Huanying"—from the Chinese word for "welcome." Hilton hotels can opt

into the program. Those that do—30 so far—must provide a front desk worker fluent in

Mandarin and a Chinese television station, as well as a full Chinese breakfast including

dim sum, congee and fried dough fritters, among other items. It will begin in August.

"Chinese travel is going to provide one of the great opportunities that we'll ever see in

the business," said Hilton Chief Executive Chris Nassetta.

Marriott International

Inc., meanwhile, is planning a new Chinese breakfast program in

the U.S. this fall that will include information for hotels on how to create a Chinese

breakfast.

Chinese foreign travel is still a small segment of overall global travel. But these moves

by hotel companies signal the growing importance that Chinese travelers are expected

to have in the coming years for the travel industry. They reflect both the leap in China's

economy and the loosening of restrictions on travel since as recently as a decade ago,

when Chinese were not allowed by their government to visit most countries.

"Outbound travel from Chinese is the next wave," said Starwood CEO

Frits van

Paasschen

.

The changes in part follow a script from the 1980s. As Japan's economy boomed, hotels

in many cities in the U.S. and around the world added Japanese breakfast items such

as rice, dried seaweed, pickled vegetables and miso soup to their menus.

The Starwood and Hilton Chinese programs are more formal and reach across their

portfolio of hotels. Attracting the new travelers is also urgent priority as growth in travel

dollars from many markets softens.

Global hotel brands have seen significant pick-up this year following deep declines

during the downturn. However the boost has been far greater in Asia than other regions,

reflecting in large part the growth of travel among Chinese.

In the first quarter of 2011, for example, Marriott saw revenue per available room in Asia

increase 17.2% compared to 5.8% in North America.

According to the U.S. Travel Association, 802,000 mainland Chinese residents visited

the U.S. in 2010, a 53% increase over the prior year. In 2005 just 270,000 Chinese

people visited the U.S. The Department of Commerce expects those numbers to reach

994,000 in 2011. The U.S. received $5 billion from Chinese visitors, according to the

Association, a 40% increase over 2009.

Japanese visitation in 2010 was much larger—around 3.1 million. Yet the trends are

divergent. From 2006 through 2009 travel from Japan declined each year, finally in

2009 reaching the lowest point since 1988, according to the Travel Association.

After Starwood executives noticed an enormous recent jump in the number of Chinese

subscribing to Starwood's loyalty program, a team led by Matt Gaghen, Starwood's vice

president of brand management, spent the last year researching the Chinese market

and discovered that language and food were two of the most important issues for

Chinese travelers.

As such, all Starwood hotels are to beginning efforts to hire at least one person on staff

who speaks a Chinese language. Chinese guests will receive a note from the general

manager translated into Chinese that offers the amenities available to them, such as tea

kettles, razors, toothbrushes and combs.

Since Starwood generally doesn't own hotels but sets standards for them, the changes

could mean a cost increase for hotel owners in some places that don't yet see many

Chinese travelers.

"We're planning and investing in this to get ahead and to appeal to Chinese at the

outset," Mr. Gaghen said.

Questions

25 possible points, 5 points per question.

1.

What services are hotel chains adding to cater to Chinese travelers? Identify 2-3

services that you can think of that are not mentioned in the article.

2.

What types of marketing research would you recommend to hotel chains to better

understand the services that Chinese travelers will want and expect?

3.

Besides hotels, what other firms could benefit from the increase in Chinese

travelers, and how should they tailor their services for this market?

4.

If your future employer is a firm that targets Chinese consumers, what skills and

experience will you need to contribute to your employer's efforts?

5.

Which aspect(s) of the business environment (economic, technological,

sociocultural, political/legal) are being affected the most in this article? Provide

specific examples.

Maximus Steel plans to introduce one of three new products code-named: Wren, Hawk, and Nightingale. The marketing department indicated that the success of any product depends on the market conditions (Favorable, Neutral, or Unfavorable). The profit the company will earn also depends on the market conditions.

The table below shows the probability estimated for each market condition and the profits Maximus Steel will realize within those conditions:

Part 1 Instructions:

1. Compute the expected value for each alternative. What is the best option for the company?
2. Develop the opportunity loss table and compute the expected opportunity loss for each product.
3. Determine how much the firm would be willing to pay to a market research firm to gain better information about future market conditions.

Part 2:

Maximus Steel is considering hiring a market research firm to do a survey to determine future market conditions. The results of the survey will indicate either positive or negative market conditions.

There is a 0.60 probability of a positive report, given favorable conditions; a 0.30 probability of a positive report, given neutral conditions; and a .10 probability of a positive report, given unfavorable conditions.

There is a .90 probability of a negative report, given unfavorable conditions; a .70 probability, given neutral conditions; and a .40 probability, given favorable conditions.

Develop a full decision tree for Maximus Stell. Determine the best strategy for the company, the expected value of the strategy, and the maximum amount the company should pay the market research firm for the survey results.

Note: This is all the info I have. Can you please just guide in the right direction for the decision tree. Thanks

1. 23.38 Football and brain changes. American football is a contact sport that can expose players to repeated head impacts. While most impacts do not lead to a medically diagnosed concussion, an increasing body of evidence suggests that repetitive subconcussive head trauma can also result in neurocognitive deficits. Researchers recruited young football players (mean age, 12 years old). The players wore sensor-equipped helmets during all practice and game events for an entire football season to record subconcussion exposure (computed as an index value on a scale of 0 to 1). Each player also received a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan at the beginning and at the end of the football season to measure changes in the brain white matter tract (computed as a percent of the original white matter volume). Here are the findings for 22 players:¹⁴

   Exposure	Change	Exposure	Change
   0.89	− 6.1	0.33	1.8
   0.05	0.0	0.11	1.9
   0.35	0.2	0.36	2.2
   0.37	− 1.2	0.08	2.3
   0.11	6.3	0.10	− 3.0
   0.19	− 4.6	0.06	8.4
   0.10	1.1	0.34	− 2.7
   0.45	1.3	0.12	3.0
   0.23	6.9	0.14	− 2.2
   0.46	1.7	0.21	− 1.4
   0.10	− 3.6	0.20	0.7

   1. Create a scatterplot of white matter change and subconcussion exposure, using subconcussion exposure as the explanatory variable. Describe the pattern.
   2. Perform the linear regression. Explain your results in terms of the hypotheses. (no need to write equation)
   3. One player had an unusually large subconcussion exposure. Obtain the equation for the least-squares regression line without this data point and test the null hypothesis of no relationship between subconcussion exposure and white matter change. What is the regression standard error?
   4. Use your work to describe the impact of the unusual observation on the regression analysis.