8. This question has to do with calculating the multiplier. Please answer questions 8a through 8c below.

  8a. Define and write the formula for the multiplier.

8b. Compute the multiplier if the MPC=0.3. Interpret the multiplier you just calculated.

8c. An Economist estimates that the MPC is now 0.7 because he received information that a company like GM are very optimistic about the future sales of their cars and trucks, so an economic expansion is inevitable. Calculate the new multiplier. Interpret the new multiplier you just calculated. Did the multiplier get smaller or bigger when the MPC rises to 0.60? Why? What does this do to consumption and investment for cars and trucks and other goods produced and bought in the U.S. economy? Is an economic expansion possible if the MPC had risen from 0.3 to 0.7? Does disposable income fall or rise when MPC rises from 0.3 to 0.7? Explain. Calculate the new multiplier and compare it with the multiplier you just calculated in 9b and then explain your results.

Note: Please label your graphs and axes on graph problems and please show your work and calculations and your steps on the math problems.

Problem 1: An organization is considering to generate forecast for April using exponential smoothing method (smoothing constant α =0.3) and the 2-period moving average technique. The actual sales are given in the table for January, February, March. The forecast for January using exponential smoothing method and the forecast for January and February using 2-period moving average technique are provided as well:

16. The forecast for April using exponential smoothing method with α =0.3 is 65.73

True

False

17. Using the 2-period moving average method, the forecast for March is 65 and the forecast for April is 75

True

False

18. If the actual sales of April is 45, the organization would prefer the exponential smoothing over the 2-period moving average technique according to MAD

True

False

19. The MSE for the 2-period moving average technique is 270.8 if the actual sales of April is 45

True

False

How does the Company Amazon relates to the Miles and Snow strategy and also how does it relate to the Porter Generic strategy?

Case Study 2: Forecasting Box Office Returns

For years, people in the motion picture industry – critics, film historians, and others – have eagerly awaited the second issue in January of Variety. Long considered the show business bible, Variety is a weekly trade newspaper that reports on all aspects of the entertainment industry; movies, television, recordings, concert tours, and so on. The second issue in January, called the Anniversary Edition, summarizes how the entertainment industry fared in the previous year, both artistically and commercially.

In this issue, Variety publishes its list of All Time Film Rental Champs. This list indicates, in descending order, motion pictures and the amount of money they returned to the studio. Because a movie theater rents a film from a studio for a limited time, the money paid for admission by ticket buyers is split between the studio and theater owner. For example, if a ticket buyer pays $8 to see a particular movie, the theater owner keeps about $4 and the studio receives the other $4. The longer a movie plays in a theater, the greater the percentage of the admission price returned to the studio. A film playing for an entire summer could eventually return as much as 90% of the $8 to the studio. The theater owner also benefits from such a success because although the owner’s percentage of the admission price is small, the sales of concessions (candy, soda and so on) provide greater profits. Thus, both the studio and the theater owner win when a film continues to draw audiences for a long time. Variety lists the rental figures (the actual dollar amounts returned to the studios) that the films have accrued in their domestic releases (United States and Canada).

In addition, Variety provides a monthly Box-Office Barometer of the film industry, which is a profile of the month’s domestic box-office returns. This profile is not measure in dollars, but scaled according to some standard. By the late 1980’s, for example, the scale was based on numbers around 100, with 100 representing the average box-office return of 1980. The figures from 1987 and 1996 are given in the table below and in the file BoxOffice.xlsx in blackboard.

All the figures are scaled around the 1980’s box-office returns, but instead of dollars, artificial numbers are used. Film executives can get a relative indication of the box-office figures compared to the arbitrary 1980 scale. For example, in January 1987 the box-office returns to the film industry were 95% of the average that year, whereas in January 1988 the returns were 104% of the average of 1980 (or, they were 4% above the average of 1980’s figure).

From the time series given in the above table, you will make a forecast for the 12 months of the next year, 1997.

Managerial Report is due on … Thursday, 19 Sept (40 pts)

1. Produce a time series plot of the data. From this graph, do you see a pattern? Can you see any seasonality in the data?
2. Use exponential smoothing to fit the data. Select an appropriate constant a based on the variation you see in the data. Comment on the appropriateness of exponential smoothing on this data set. Plot the predictions from this model on the graph with the original data. How well does this technique fit the data? Make forecasts for 1997.
3. Use regression to build a linear trend model. Comment on the goodness-of-fit of this model to the data (or, how well does R² explain the variance in the data?). Plot the predictions from this model on the graph with the original data.
4. Develop multiplicative seasonal indices for the linear trend model developed in question 3. Use these indices to adjust predictions from the linear trend model from question 3 above for seasonal effects. Plot the predictions from this model on the graph with the original data. How well does this technique fit the data? Make forecasts for the next 12 months of 1997 using this technique.
5. Which forecasting method of those that you tried do you have the most confidence for making accurate forecasts for 1997? Use MAPE (mean absolute percent error) as your criterion to justify your decision.

Enrichment (5 pts): Use Optimization (and Solver in Excel) to find the optimal smoothing constant in problem 2 above (by minimizing the Mean Squared Error or MSE).

case study question

Miss Yinnary is one of the many women who own their own businesses and her experience is not very different from others, who must contend with being a mother, a spouse and a family cheerleader in addition to owning and operating a business.

She is the owner of the famous Y-Hotel. It was her first business, though she had some family background in this business. Her two sisters were also in the same line of business. But she borrowed some money, put in some of her savings and started her own venture. She was the first woman ever to enter into this business, most of her clients could not understand that a woman could be interested in the hospitality industry. To Step up her game in the hospitality Industry , Miss Yinari is seeking someone who understands innovative entrepreneurship to assist her.

During her rise to success and in management of her hotel business, she also needs to manage a family, stay teaching in university and dealing with community affairs. In her mind, there is nothing more exhilarating than owning her own business, and for her, the fun is in facing the challenges of turning the hotel into a first ever hotel that provide customers an unforgettable experience with innovation

In the present time, more women are making this choice, pursuing entrepreneurship rather than staying as housewives or traditional careers. For the past few years, the number of women starting new ventures is three times as large as the number of men. There are several good reasons for this trend. Some women find that owning a business is the only way to combine a decent income with time for their children by having the flexibility to control their schedules. Others see themselves as unlikely corporate managers and recognizing the gender problem that exists for achieving success, they choose the entrepreneurial route. Still others see entrepreneurship as a way of controlling their lives, pursuing interests that would be impossible in a corporate job.

The dual roles of mother and entrepreneur often conflict, and husbands and wives

tend to develop separate career tracks that often cannot be reconciled. Women can

also find it lonely in a business world, especially if clients are predominantly men,

this was a problem for Yinari too.

Many women, however, have businesses that fit well with their interest and with

women customers. These include services in beauty care, nutrition, education,

entertainment etc. Nevertheless, being in business often exacts a double price for

women, yet for those with determination like Yinari, the rewards are always waiting.

Your Task as Business Consultant , Prepare a report regarding the following issues below :

a.Find a profile of successful Local and International Entrepreneur Women in the hospitality industry and explain the factors that drive their success !

b. As a business consultant, what is the Innovation that you will suggest to miss Yinnary for her hotel? Explain

For independent projects, is it true that if PI>1.0, then NPV>0 and IRR>K? prove

How do you calculate the pH of 1.0 Moles of HClO, HCO2H, and KHCO2?