Your former director of business development contracted John Smith, an American consultant, to manage the development and marketing of one of the newer projects of the company.This project appeared very promising but is in fact bringing much lower revenues than originally anticipated. Mr. Smith just presented his expenses for his first class airfare tickets, five star hotel rooms and gourmet restaurant bills (with expensive French wines) of the last three months. Such expenses are a serious concern to your director of finances who finds them out of line. Your financial reports for the second half of this year would be improved if you negotiated an eight-month earlier termination of his 20-months consulting contract. That would help you wind down this project quicker. However, there is no good cause to base Mr. Smith’s termination on the lack of his contractual performance. In fact, some within your organization appreciate Mr. Smith’s work and believe he might turn things around, given additional time and manpower. You also have a suspicion about a potential conflict of interest. Indirectly, through an employee of HR, you have been told that Mr.Smith was seen in a night club entertaining Ms. Hodge, a project manager of your main competitor. Mr. Toba, a member of the Board of your company has been suggesting to your President that he might be more sympathetic to the under-performance of this project if you managed to contract his nephew George,a fresh MBA graduate from Northwest University, instead of John Smith. To review the contractual arrangements with Mr. Smith, you asked your contract department earlier today for a copy of his consulting contract. Unfortunately, they have been unable to locate their signed copy at this time.

Considerations for your Blackboard debate of this case:

1) How would you approach your consultant about various issues?

•Directly or indirectly

•Discussing all or just some issue; Why?

2) Would you try to work out issues with the consultant or terminate his contract?

3) Explain how such case would be handled if contracting company was residing in a certain country that you are familiar with.

Suppose 1% of the population of Toronto has been infected with SARS-CoV-2 at some point (call the corresponding proportion, 0.01, the prevalence of the virus). There are now antibody tests available for SARS-CoV-2 to detect whether someone has ever been infected. However, like any test, these tests are not perfect and are subject to error at some rate.

Also suppose that, when someone has been infected, the test correctly comes up positive 98% of the time, comes up negative 1.7% of the time, and comes up inconclusive in the remaining 0.3% of cases. Also suppose that when someone has not been infected, the test correctly comes up negative 99% of the time, positive 0.8% of the time, and inconclusive 0.2% of the time.

Let ?D be the event that a randomly selected person in Toronto has truly been infected (?D for disease). Thus, ??Dc is the event that the person has never been infected. Let ++ be the event that a test comes up positive, and – the event it comes up negative. Use ?O for inconclusive.

Draw a probability tree to depict the relationship between these events (see Lecture 7). Use the tree to compute ?(?|+)P(D|+), the probability that someone has been infected conditional on getting a positive test result. What does this result mean in words and why might it be surprising (1-2 sentences)?

Use the same information about testing for SARS-CoV-2 as above. What happens if prevalence changes to 0.10? Redraw the tree, and compute ?(?|+) again using this new prevalence. What do these results suggest about the importance of prevalence in interpreting test results like this (1 sentence)? Suppose a random person in Toronto gets an inconclusive result on an antibody test for SARS-CoV-2. Is the probability that they are infected lower or higher than it was before we knew their test result? Use your tree to explain.

Flexible Budgeting and Variance Analysis

I Love My Chocolate Company makes dark chocolate and light chocolate. Both products require cocoa and sugar. The following planning information has been made available:

I Love My Chocolate Company does not expect there to be any beginning or ending inventories of cocoa or sugar. At the end of the budget year, I Love My Chocolate Company had the following actual results:

Required:

1. the following variance analyses for both chocolates and the total, based on the actual results and production levels at the end of the budget year:

     a. Direct materials price variance, direct materials quantity variance, and total variance.

     b. Direct labor rate variance, direct labor time variance, and total variance.

Enter a favorable variance as a negative number using a minus sign and an unfavorable variance as a positive number.

Flexible Budgeting and Variance Analysis

I Love My Chocolate Company makes dark chocolate and light chocolate. Both products require cocoa and sugar. The following planning information has been made available:

I Love My Chocolate Company does not expect there to be any beginning or ending inventories of cocoa or sugar. At the end of the budget year, I Love My Chocolate Company had the following actual results:

Required:

1. Prepare the following variance analyses for both chocolates and the total, based on the actual results and production levels at the end of the budget year:

     a. Direct materials price variance, direct materials quantity variance, and total variance.

     b. Direct labor rate variance, direct labor time variance, and total variance.

Enter a favorable variance as a negative number using a minus sign and an unfavorable variance as a positive number.

In baseball, is there a linear correlation between batting average and home run percentage? Let x represent the batting average of a professional baseball player, and let y represent the player's home run percentage (number of home runs per 100 times at bat). A random sample of n = 7 professional baseball players gave the following information.

(a) Make a scatter diagram of the data.

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(b) Use a calculator to verify that Σx = 1.949, Σx² = 0.549, Σy = 30.0, Σy² = 148.36 and Σxy = 8.687.

Compute r. (Round your answer to three decimal places.)


As x increases, does the value of r imply that y should tend to increase or decrease? Explain your answer.

Given our value of r, y should tend to increase as x increases.Given our value of r, we can not draw any conclusions for the behavior of y as x increases.     Given our value of r, y should tend to remain constant as x increases.Given our value of r, y should tend to decrease as x increases.

1. In Excel, create a 2x30 data table with the left column representing a population of prey and the right column representing a population of predators. Use the population model presented below.

Let the starting values of the model parameters be: r = 1.3, k = 1, s = .5, v = 1.6, and u = .7

Let the starting population of P = 1.1 and Q = .4

Difference equations: P[t + 1] = P[t](1 + r(1 – P[t]/K)) - sP[t]Q[t]

Qt + 1 = (1-u)Q[t] + vP[t]Q[t]

a. What does sP[t]Q[t] and vP[t]Q[t] represent?

b. Plot the values of P[t] and Q[t] in a graph.

c. Describe in words the changes in P[t] and Q[t] through time.

d. Build table in excel and describe in words what happens if you increase the growth rate of prey (r)? What about if we decrease the growth rate?

e. What does u represent? Why should u be less than 1? What happens if we make u = 1? Can you think of any biological systems in which u = 1 is a realistic assumption?

f. Create a second Excel worksheet representing another population model. Use the instructions from question 1, except that your model should now include a term to represent the amount of prey which cannot be eaten because they are hiding in refuges (just like in question 2) represented by the term: w. Also, for the predators, include a term f representing what happens if a constant, external food source contributes to the predator population.

Let w = 0.3 and let f = 0.25

g. Graph the new population levels.

h. Explore different values of w and f. Try setting w = 0, or f = 0 to see what effect each of these has individually. Describe your results.

The following table reports the Consumer Pirce Index for the Los Angeles area on a monthly basis from January 1998 to December 2000 (base year=1982-1984). Eliminating the data for 2000, use Excel to forecast the index for all of 2000 using a three-and -six month average. Which provides a better forecast for 2000 using the data provided?

rev: 09_12_2014_QC_53420

The following is average weekly per pound price data for apple pears in the US (from usda.gov) starting May. Your employer wants you to determine forecasted average weekly price for all the weeks starting in May.

1. For each period starting in May (through August 6), determine the forecasted values (round all responses to two decimal places) using:
   1. Naïve previous period
   2. Four-period moving average
   3. Four-period weighted moving average (w₁=0.35, w₂=0.3, w₃=0.25, w₄=0.10).
   4. Exponential smoothing with an α= .35. Make the assumption that the forecasted value of May 20 is equal to the actual value of May 20.

To receive any credit for filling out the above table, you must show your hand written work on attached pages. You should also double check your work using Excel (Excel for forecasting won’t be graded).

2. For the last four periods in the month of July (includes: July 8, July 15, July 22, and July 29),
   1. calculate MAD, MSE, and MAPE (ok to use Excel here), and fill out the following table

2. Which forecasting technique do you recommend the company uses? Justify your response.

Scenario: (Chest Pain, Shortness of Breath) Richard is a 65 year old client is admitted to your ward after an acute episode of chest pain. Current diagnosis is Acute episode of Unstable Angina. This is day two in the ward. Past Medical history reveals hypercholesterolemia x 10 years, DMT2 x 5 years, unstable angina x two years, coronary artery disease x two years and hypertension x six years. No relevant social or psychiatric history found.

Nurses call bell rings. As an EN you are answering the call bell. Client states that he is having sever chest pain. Verbalise your actions:

Assessment On asking Richard states that the chest pain is squeezing type at the centre of the chest radiating towards his jaw. Pain started as he was in the toilet trying to open his bowels. Richard states that he has not passed stools in the last two days. LOC: alert and oriented.

Vital signs: T= 36.2°C, PR=102/min RR=30/min BP=136/90 SaOz=98% on room air BGL 12.0 Pain: 9 out of 10

Relevant Investigations: Troponin 1 = 0.9 Troponin 2 = 1.5 Troponin 3 = 0.3 Urea = 4.Smmol/L Creatinine = 126 Micromol/L Na+ = 142 mmol/L K+= 3.1 mmol/L Ca2+ = 1.8 mmol/L Mg2+ = 0.5 MMOl/1. Current treatment plan: 4/24 Vital Signs BGLs QID + 0200am Daily ECGs Aperients PRN Analgesics and antiemetic's PRN TED stockings Toilet privileges if pain free Inform doctor about each episode of Chest Pain. Morphine and GTN as per protocol.

Based on the above scenario, please briefly write the progress note in a paragraph style not in seperate sentences.