We had two financial crises since 2000, 2000 dot.com bubble, 2008-2009 financial crisis. From FRED website, find the following data from 1995 to 2013, and make a graph. Explain the general trends of each series, and compare them between the two crises.

1. Money supply (M2)
2. Nominal GDP
3. Velocity of Money
4. Consumer Price Index

An economist with a major bank wants to learn, quantitatively, how much spending on luxury goods and services can be explained based on consumers’ perception about the current state of the economy and what do they expect in the near future (6 months ahead).  Consumers, of all income and wealth classes, were surveyed.  Every year, 1500 consumers were interviewed.  The bank having all of the data from the 1500 consumers interviewed every year, computed the average level of consumer confidence (an index ranging from 0 to 100, 100 being absolutely optimistic) and computed the average dollar amount spent on luxuries annually.  Below is the data shown for the last 24 years.

Date                 X                     Y (in thousands of dollars)

1994                79.1                 55.6

1995                79                    54.8

1996                80.2                 55.4

1997                80.5                 55.9

1998                81.2                 56.4

1999                80.8                 57.3

2000                81.2                 57

2001                80.7                 57.5

2002                80.3                 56.9

2003                79.4                 55.8

2004                78.6                 56.1

2005                78.3                 55.7

2006                78.3                 55.7

2007                77.8                 55

2008                77.7                 54.4

2009                77.6                 54

2010                77.6                 56

2011                78.5                 56.7

2012                78.3                 56.3

2013                78.5                 57.2

2014                78.9                 57.8

2015                79.8                 58.7

2016                80.4                 59.3

2017                80.7                 59.9

Question:

1. Construct the linear regression model for the dollar amount spent on luxury goods and services.

The data below is the total spending (in millions of dollars) on drugs and other non-durable products for your assigned state (or DC). You need to convert this data to spending per capita in constant 2019 dollars.

Go to the FRED database at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/

Search for the PCEPI. Change the frequency to annual. Using that price index (this is a national index; there isn't a PCE index for each state), convert the following to 2019Q3 dollars.

Again using the FRED database, find the population for your state. The symbol is usually the two letter abbreviation for the state and POP. New York, for example, would be NYPOP.

Using this information, covert the spending below into spending per capita, in 2019Q3 dollars. Keep in mind that the values below are in millions of dollars and you want your answers in dollars.

Enter your results for every even-numbered year in the answer

Alaska

Grab a blank sheet of paper and try some inflation analysis on your own. Take a picture or scan your sheet, and upload it after you are finished. This contributes to your participation grade in the class.

1. Because inflation increased by only 1.7% in 2008, the American Association of Retired Persons comments that this is “an unfortunate side effect of inflation, since Social Security payments, which are indexed to inflation, will increase by only 1.7% in 2008.” Comment on whether this is an “unfortunate side effect of inflation” or not.
2. The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) can impact the economy through changes in the Federal funds rate, because changes in this interest rate will change all interest rates throughout the economy. The Federal funds rate was constant at 5.25% from 1996–1998, a time of falling inflation. What impact did this have on real interest rates during this time? What was likely to happen to investment spending?
3. “Traveling in Turkey is much cheaper now than it was 10 years ago,” says a friend. "Ten years ago, a dollar bought 1,000 lira; this year, a dollar buys 1,500 lira.” Total inflation over this period was 25% in the United States and 100% in Turkey. Is your friend right or wrong—has it become more or less expensive to travel in Turkey?

Upload your file below. Naming convention should be "Last Name_First Name."

The general fund budget (in billions of dollars) for a U.S. state for 1988 (period 1) to 2011 (period 24) follows.

(a)

Construct a time series plot.

What type of pattern exists in the data?

The time series plot shows a horizontal pattern.

The time series plot shows a nonlinear trend.    

The time series plot shows a seasonal pattern.

The time series plot shows a linear trend.

(b)

Develop a linear trend equation for this time series to forecast the budget (in billions of dollars). (Round your numerical values to three decimal places.)

T_t =

(c)

What is the forecast (in billions of dollars) for period 25? (Round your answer to two decimal places.)

$ _______ billion

The following table repeats the annual total returns on the MSCI Germany Index previously given and also gives the annual total returns on the JP Morgan Germany five- to seven-year government bond index (JPM 5–7 Year GBI, for short). During the period given in the table, the International Monetary Fund Germany Money Market Index (IMF Germany MMI, for short) had a mean annual total return of 4.33 percent. Use that information and the information in the table to answer the following questions.

a) Using the IMF Germany MMI as a proxy for the risk-free return, calculate the Sharpe ratio for:

(i) the 60/40 equity/bond portfolio described in Problem 12.

(ii) the MSCI Germany Index.

(iii) the JPM Germany 5–7 Year GBI.

b) Contrast the risk-adjusted performance of the 60/40 equity/bond portfolio, the MSCI Germany Index, and the JPM Germany 5–7 Year GBI, as measured by the Sharpe ratio.

Use the procedure outlined in Section 11.6.2 on p.262 of textbook and the annual percentage default rate for all rated companies in Table 11.6 on p.259,

a. Estimate the probability of default (PD) and default correlation (ρ) for the period 1970-1993, and for the period 1994-2016 separately.

b. Plot the probability distribution of default rate (similar to Figure 11.6 on p.263) for the time period 1970-1993 and 1994-2016 together on the same graph.

Textbook Risk Management and Financial Institutions, 5th Edition

The table contains real data for the first two decades of AIDS reporting.

1.) Graph “year” versus “# AIDS cases diagnosed” (plot the scatter plot). Do not include pre-1981 data. In excel using formula's

2.) Find the regression equation, Interpret slope, Find r. and Describe linear correlation.

3.) When x = 1985, ŷ = _____

When x = 1990, ŷ =_____

When x = 1970, ŷ =______ Why doesn’t this answer make sense?

4.)  What does the correlation imply about the relationship between time (years) and the number of diagnosed AIDS cases reported in the U.S.?

Basic Unix Commands

Objective:
The objective of this lab is to work with files of UNIX file system.

Procedure:
1. OpenyourUnixshellandtrythesecommands:

Ø Create a new file and add some text in it vcat > filename

• Ø View a file
  vcat /etc/passwd vmore /etc/passwd vmore filename

• Ø Copy file, making file2 vcp file1 file2

• Ø Move/rename file1 as file2 vmv file1 file2

• Ø Delete file1 as file2 vrm file

//Deletefile //Double-checkfirst

vrm -i file
Ø Counts the lines, words, characters in file

vwc file
Ø Search file for a string

v Grep lubuntu /etc/passwd v grep 'else' /etc/profile
v grep ^united ~/myFile

// List lines containing ‘lubuntu’ in /etc/passwd

//Lines containing ‘else‘ in /etc/profile

//Lines starting with ‘united’ in ~/myFile

1

• Ø Output can be redirected to a file with’>’ vls > dir.txt
  vcal 1997 > year1997

• Ø Output can be appended to a file with ’>>’ vcal 1997 > years
  vcal 1998 >> years

• Ø Concatenate two files vcat f1 f2 > fs

• Ø Input redirection (less common) uses ‘<‘ vwc < years

• Ø Combine input and output redirection vwc < years > year-counts

  *Do screenshot of each steps you have completed* ((using lubuntu))