Suppose in a certain cohort study a researcher followed 360 college students who regularly smoked cigarettes, and 1200 college students who did not regularly smoke cigarettes. None of the subjects had peptic ulcers at the start of the study period. At the end of the study period, 90 of the smokers and 60 of the nonsmokers had at least one peptic ulcer. For simplicity, assume that none of the students died or left the study early. Also, assume the sample is representative of the population of college students in Nevada. Finally, suppose that 20% of college students in Nevada regularly smoke cigarettes.

1. In the smokers, what percentage of the risk for developing at least one peptic ulcer is directly attributable to smoking?

2. In the population of Nevada college students, what absolute amount of risk for developing at least one peptic ulcer is directly attributable to smoking?

3. In the population of Nevada college students, what percentage decrease in the risk for developing at least one peptic ulcer could be achieved by completely eliminating smoking?

Suppose in a certain cohort study a researcher followed 360 college students who regularly smoked cigarettes, and 1200 college students who did not regularly smoke cigarettes. None of the subjects had peptic ulcers at the start of the study period. At the end of the study period, 90 of the smokers and 60 of the nonsmokers had at least one peptic ulcer. For simplicity, assume that none of the students died or left the study early. Also, assume the sample is representative of the population of college students in Nevada. Finally, suppose that 20% of college students in Nevada regularly smoke cigarettes.

1. In the smokers, what percentage of the risk for developing at least one peptic ulcer is directly attributable to smoking?

2. In the population of Nevada college students, what absolute amount of risk for developing at least one peptic ulcer is directly attributable to smoking?

3. In the population of Nevada college students, what percentage decrease in the risk for developing at least one peptic ulcer could be achieved by completely eliminating smoking?

1. Match the description with the type of study – descriptive, ecological, cross-sectional, cohort, case-control, experimental

A) Prevalence of carpel tunnel syndrome (CTS) was assessed in workers in textile factories and compared with a control population of airline pilots. The textile worker population had at least two-fold excess of CTS as compared to the control population = __________

B) A study compared 500 women having children with birth defects with a similar number of controls (women with healthy children). They found a statistically significant association between incomplete vaccine history and the occurrence of birth defects = __________

C) Fluorinated water was given to half of the students attending a school with a high prevalence of dental caries. A 1-year study then compared the incidence of dental caries in the students receiving fluorinated water to those not receiving the fluorinated water = __________

D) Analysis of stool samples taken in a hospital between 1985 and 1994 showed that 35% were positive for Ascaris(roundworm) infection, whereas analysis of samples taken between 2001 and 2010 indicated that only 1% were positive – the decrease was attributed to the discontinued use of wastewater for irrigating vegetables = __________

E) In a study to examine the health effects of routine exercise, individuals were recruited immediately after leaving a gym located in a shopping mall. Controls drawn from a population leaving the shopping mall who had not visited the gym. During the 1-year follow-up period, data were acquired on the health status of the two groups using questionnaire interviews= __________

F) The seasonal variation in the reported incidence of acute diarrhea in selected areas was examined in relation to rainfall and temperature records for the same areas. The investigators found that the incidence of diarrhea appeared to be inversely related to a sharp seasonal decrease in temperature. Rainfall did not appear to have a direct effect = __________

Case Study 9—Social Media Is Gateway to eBook Sales Success: Amazon Kindle eBooks Thomas S. Mueller, Appalachian State University The Amazon Kindle eBook brand is one of the most popular forms of digital publishing in today’s social community. As of early 2016, the direct-to-consumer online retailer was selling 1.06 million eBooks (paid downloads) per day. Consumers spent $5.75 million per day during a recent month, with $1.76 million of those sales directed to author royalties. Though it is somewhat undocumented regarding distribution, authors received an additional $140 million in funds from Kindle Unlimited, Amazon’s subscription reading service.32 The industry as a whole is generating over $2.1 billion in sales annually. It is interesting to note that as established publisher sales decreased, eBooks written by independent authors increased.33 During an assessment in 2016, 56 of Amazon’s 100 top-selling eBooks were self-published titles. Topically, the bestselling independent authors write about paranormal activities, romance, thrillers, urban fiction, suspense, and science fiction. With the ascent of digital titles on Amazon and other sources, industry experts posit that printed versions of books will become a niche market, similar to the effect noted in magazine and newsprint.34 Digital publishing strategist Ben Thompson applies aggregation theory to the process, suggesting that sales portals like Amazon eliminate intermediaries, which allows independent publishers to avoid publishers and go direct to consumers.35 With a substantial faction of the social publishing market operating independently, advertising and promotion become the responsibility of the author. One portion of an author’s time is allocated to writing the novel, while the other half of the time is invested in social commerce, which includes marketing to expand the author’s fan base. The challenge is to differentiate an eBook from millions of competitive titles, then convince readers to download the digital offering onto a Kindle reader or other digital device. Pre-selling is essential to assure return on investment for the self-published author. One viable and affordable option is to build a social media marketing plan. Social media platforms provide opportunities to develop leads, generate a follower list, leverage other prominent users, access large topical groups, and promote content “teasers” that showcase your upcoming eBook.36 Most eBook authors develop a social media plan through content generation. These are most often short, concise articles of 250 to 500 words. Most successful social media plans offer shorter posts, with frequent placement. Social media content is usually housed in a blog, such as Google’s Blogger platform, or the highly customizable WordPress.37 It’s important to claim a URL that is unique and specific to the author and her or his work. A strong URL, along with key search words included in blog post titles, can help the author’s social media content climb in ranking on search engines. Social media portals such as LinkedIn and Google+ offer each user a personal landing page, but much more is available through groups and communities, where individuals share common interests. For example, a fashion community in Google+ hosts 557,000 followers.38 A marketing communication group in LinkedIn has collected 621,000 members.39 And, the LinkedIn Book Marketing group has 28,000 members.40 It is essential to identify a topical group to understand the relevance of posts, how interaction and replies work, and who posts the top viewed submissions. Authors can integrate into these platforms by reading posts, replying to posts, and finally crafting content that resonates with potential readers. Some authors incorporate introductory promotional comments on their upcoming eBook. It is important for authors to remember that blatant selling is not admissible; posted content must provide value and prove interesting to other group members.41 Facebook has been the most influential platform for many eBook authors. It has grown to over 1.4 billion users worldwide, with 70% checking their feed multiple times each day. eBook authors create a “landing page” for their profile as an author, or sometimes for a specific title. The challenge is to direct friends from the page to a personal website, and to target specific Facebook users who are profiled as sharing an interest in the eBook topic. Some authors host events or make promotional offers to engage users and increase traffic, which can be measured through social media data management. Mark Dawson initially started writing for a traditional publishing firm. His sales were weak and he transitioned to self-publishing. After learning how to leverage Facebook, Mark invested time and energy and now earns over $450,000 per year.42 Video platforms such as Vimeo and YouTube have been integrated into the social media promotion of eBooks. YouTube, the predominant player, was purchased in 2006 for $1.65 billion by Google. YouTube currently reports that it generates over 1 billion views per month.43 Successful eBook authors have integrated YouTube segments into their social media plans, including interviews or “teasers” that offer special introductory offers at eBook launch time. It’s beneficial to cross-promote YouTube posts across Facebook pages and embedded content in visual sharing sites such as Pinterest and Instagram. Studies indicate that the human brain assimilates images 60,000 times more quickly than text. eBook authors are intentional about visual sharing; Instagram is predominantly 18 to 24 female (56%) and allows space to share images. Pinterest represents a female and male audience, with two thirds between the ages of 18 and 24. One half are located outside the United States. It allows users to aggregate content that appeals to their interests and sensibilities. The author’s challenge is to entice user engagement, create awareness for the latest published eBook, and generate reader feedback, which can channel into digital book reviews. Many authors use the visual advantage to promote their eBook through storytelling in multiple posts.44 A social media platform that serves as the “messenger” for all social media activity is Twitter. Each message is limited to 140 characters, which can in turn be reposted and shared. Twitter now has 320 million monthly users, with over 1 billion monthly visits.45 Savvy eBook authors use Twitter to include “@” user handles to attract other key authors, or hashtags to create topical searches. Twitter can also steer followers to other platforms, where blog or web content has been placed. Some have also leveraged Twitter’s new live video broadcast program Periscope to promote special programs and activities. Some of the most highly successful eBook authors are also prominent podcast hosts. Technology entrepreneur James Altucher has published 11 books, including the Wall Street Journal bestseller Choose Yourself! Altucher’s unique position in the marketplace is that he lost his fortune, earned it back, and then lost it again. He now publishes eBooks such as Reinvent Yourself and promotes his projects on the popular “James Altucher Show” podcast, which is accessible on podbay.fm and iTunes.46 One social media opportunity that is sometimes overlooked is within the Amazon portal itself. An Amazon author page can showcase the author, include a biography, feature a compilation of the author’s Amazon Kindle publications, and link to other social media content such as Twitter or personal blogs. Most anyone can become a digital author, but not everyone can sell books. The holistic author understands how to write, publish, network, create, associate, and entertain. Social media presents the gateway where authors and customers connect in the open and unregulated marketplace.

Historical documentarian Ken Burns created a 1990 television series on the Civil War for the Public Broadcasting Network (PBS). Find Mr. Burns’ Twitter user handle, then write a tweet that would include both user handle and hashtag to link his work with a new eBook on the Civil War.

There is some evidence that, in the years 1981 - 85, a simple name change resulted in a short-term increase in the price of certain business firms' stocks (relative to the prices of similar stocks). (See D. Horsky and P. Swyngedouw, "Does it pay to change your company's name? A stock market perspective," Marketing Science v.6, pp. 320- 35, 1987.)

Suppose that, to test the profitability of name changes in the more recent market (the past five years), we analyze the stock prices of a large sample of corporations shortly after they changed names, and we find that the mean relative increase in stock price was about 0.72%, with a standard deviation of 0.14%. Suppose that this mean and standard deviation apply to the population of all companies that changed names during the past five years. Complete the following statements about the distribution of relative increases in stock price for all companies that changed names during the past five years.

(a) According to Chebyshev's theorem, at least____ of the relative increases in stock price lie between 0.51 % and 0.93 %.

(b) According to Chebyshev's theorem, at least ____ of the relative increases in stock price lie between 0.44 % and 1.00 %.

(c) Suppose that the distribution is bell-shaped. According to the empirical rule, approximately____ of the relative increases in stock price lie between 0.44 % and 1.00 %.

(d) Suppose that the distribution is bell-shaped. According to the empirical rule, approximately 99.7% of the relative increases in stock price lie between___%
and ____%.

There is some evidence that, in the years 1981-85, a simple name change resulted in a short-term increase in the price of certain business firms' stocks (relative to the prices of similar stocks). (See D. Horsky and P. Swyngedouw, "Does it pay to change your company's name? A stock market perspective," Marketing Science v.6 , pp. 320-35,1987.) Suppose that, to test the profitability of name changes in the more recent market (the past five years), we analyze the stock prices of a large sample of corporations shortly after they changed names, and we find that the mean relative increase in stock price was about 0.70%, with a standard deviation of 0.15%. Suppose that this mean and standard deviation apply to the population of all companies that changed names during the past five years. Complete the following statements about the distribution of relative increases in stock price for all companies that changed names during the past five years.

a) According to Chebyshev's theorem, at least of the relative increases in stock price lie between 0.25 % and 1.15.

(b) According to Chebyshev's theorem, at least of the relative increases in stock price lie between 0.40 % and 1.00.

(c) Suppose that the distribution is bell-shaped. According to the empirical rule, approximately of the relative increases in stock price lie between 0.40 % and 1.00.

(d) Suppose that the distribution is bell-shaped. According to the empirical rule, approximately 68% of the relative increases in stock price lie between _% and _%. .

There is some evidence that, in the years 1981-85, a simple name change resulted in a short-term increase in the price of certain business firms' stocks (relative to the prices of similar stocks). (See D. Horsky and P. Swyngedouw, "Does it pay to change your company's name? A stock market perspective," Marketing Science v.6, pp. 320-35,1987.) Suppose that, to test the profitability of name changes in the more recent market (the past five years), we analyze the stock prices of a large sample of corporations shortly after they changed names, and we find that the mean relative increase in stock price was about 0.89%, with a standard deviation of 0.16%. Suppose that this mean and standard deviation apply to the population of all companies that changed names during the past five years. Complete the following statements about the distribution of relative increases in stock price for all companies that changed names during the past five years.

(a) According to Chebyshev's theorem, at least of the relative increases in stock price lie between 0.57 % and 1.21 %.

(b) According to Chebyshev's theorem, at least of the relative increases in stock price lie between 0.65 % and 1.13 %.

(c) Suppose that the distribution is bell-shaped. According to the empirical rule, approximately of the relative increases in stock price lie between 0.57 % and 1.21 %. (d) Suppose that the distribution is bell-shaped. According to the empirical rule, approximately 99.7% of the relative increases in stock price lie between % and %.

In nearly every chapter, the author outlines the purported reasonableness of each WMD before raising her own objections to it. Were you surprised by any of O’Neill’s objections? Were there any you feel were unfair? Any you feel did not go far enough?

The author of “The Inefficiency of Local Food” argues that eating local can be cost inefficient because it forgoes the gains arising from regional comparative advantage in food production. Explain how comparative advantage in food production works and its role in the costs and benefits of eating local.

1. Why is plagiarism so prevalent in today’s society?
2. Why should an author paraphrase information instead of just quoting information?
3. Can the act of paraphrasing information actually help a writer convey his or her ideas more clearly, concisely, or more creatively? Why? Why not?