Questions
3) If you have a 40% probability of winning at a game of roulette, how many...

3) If you have a 40% probability of winning at a game of roulette, how many games can you expect to win after playing 30 games?

4) Calculate the variance of the problem above.

5) If Sarah rolls a 6-sided number cube, how many times can she expect to roll a 4 if she plays 18 games?

In: Advanced Math

Problem 13-09 (Algorithmic) Myrtle Air Express decided to offer direct service from Cleveland to Myrtle Beach....

Problem 13-09 (Algorithmic)

Myrtle Air Express decided to offer direct service from Cleveland to Myrtle Beach. Management must decide between a full-price service using the company’s new fleet of jet aircraft and a discount service using smaller capacity commuter planes. It is clear that the best choice depends on the market reaction to the service Myrtle Air offers. Management developed estimates of the contribution to profit for each type of service based upon two possible levels of demand for service to Myrtle Beach: strong and weak. The following table shows the estimated quarterly profits (in thousands of dollars):

Demand for Service
Service Strong Weak
Full price $1380 -$580
Discount $980 $460
  1. What is the decision to be made, what is the chance event, and what is the consequence for this problem?

    The input in the box below will not be graded, but may be reviewed and considered by your instructor.



    How many decision alternatives are there?

    Number of decision alternatives =  

    How many outcomes are there for the chance event?

    Number of outcomes =
  2. If nothing is known about the probabilities of the chance outcomes, what is the recommended decision using the optimistic, conservative and minimax regret approaches?
    Optimistic approach Full price service
    Conservative approach Discount service
    Minimax regret approach Discount service
  3. Suppose that management of Myrtle Air Express believes that the probability of strong demand is 0.7 and the probability of weak demand is 0.3. Use the expected value approach to determine an optimal decision.

    Optimal Decision : Discount service
  4. Suppose that the probability of strong demand is 0.8 and the probability of weak demand is 0.2. What is the optimal decision using the expected value approach?

    Optimal Decision : Full price service
  5. Determine the range of demand probabilities for which each of the decision alternatives has the largest expected value. If required, round your answer to four decimal places.

    Discount service  is the best choice if probability of strong demand is less than or equal to . For values of  greater than , the full price service is the best  choice.

In: Operations Management

Myrtle Air Express decided to offer direct service from Cleveland to Myrtle Beach. Management must decide...

Myrtle Air Express decided to offer direct service from Cleveland to Myrtle Beach. Management must decide between a full-price service using the company’s new fleet of jet aircraft and a discount service using smaller capacity commuter planes. It is clear that the best choice depends on the market reaction to the service Myrtle Air offers. Management developed estimates of the contribution to profit for each type of service based upon two possible levels of demand for service to Myrtle Beach: strong and weak. The following table shows the estimated quarterly profits (in thousands of dollars):

Demand for Service
Service Strong Weak
Full price $1440 -$530
Discount $1050 $480
  1. What is the decision to be made, what is the chance event, and what is the consequence for this problem?

    The input in the box below will not be graded, but may be reviewed and considered by your instructor.



    How many decision alternatives are there?

    Number of decision alternatives =

    How many outcomes are there for the chance event?

    Number of outcomes =
  2. If nothing is known about the probabilities of the chance outcomes, what is the recommended decision using the optimistic, conservative and minimax regret approaches?
    Optimistic approach Full price service
    Conservative approach Discount service
    Minimax regret approach Discount service
  3. Suppose that management of Myrtle Air Express believes that the probability of strong demand is 0.7 and the probability of weak demand is 0.3. Use the expected value approach to determine an optimal decision.

    Optimal Decision : Discount service
  4. Suppose that the probability of strong demand is 0.8 and the probability of weak demand is 0.2. What is the optimal decision using the expected value approach?

    Optimal Decision : Full price service
  5. Determine the range of demand probabilities for which each of the decision alternatives has the largest expected value. If required, round your answer to four decimal places.

    Discount service  is the best choice if probability of strong demand is less than or equal to . For values of  greater than , the full price service is the best  choice.

In: Operations Management

Myrtle Air Express decided to offer direct service from Cleveland to Myrtle Beach. Management must decide...

  1. Myrtle Air Express decided to offer direct service from Cleveland to Myrtle Beach. Management must decide between a full-price service using the company’s new fleet of jet aircraft and a discount service using smaller capacity commuter planes. It is clear that the best choice depends on the market reaction to the service Myrtle Air offers. Management developed estimates of the contribution to profit for each type of service based upon two possible levels of demand for service to Myrtle Beach: strong and weak. The following table shows the estimated quarterly profits (in thousands of dollars):

    Demand for Service
    Service Strong Weak
    Full price $1440 -$530
    Discount $1000 $480
    1. What is the decision to be made, what is the chance event, and what is the consequence for this problem?

      The input in the box below will not be graded, but may be reviewed and considered by your instructor.



      How many decision alternatives are there?

      Number of decision alternatives = ___

      How many outcomes are there for the chance event?

      Number of outcomes = ___
    2. If nothing is known about the probabilities of the chance outcomes, what is the recommended decision using the optimistic, conservative and minimax regret approaches?
      Optimistic approach
      Conservative approach
      Minimax regret approach
    3. Suppose that management of Myrtle Air Express believes that the probability of strong demand is 0.7 and the probability of weak demand is 0.3. Use the expected value approach to determine an optimal decision.

      Optimal Decision :  (Full Price Service/ Discount Service)
    4. Suppose that the probability of strong demand is 0.8 and the probability of weak demand is 0.2. What is the optimal decision using the expected value approach?

      Optimal Decision :  (Full Price Service/ Discount Service)
    5. Determine the range of demand probabilities for which each of the decision alternatives has the largest expected value. If required, round your answer to four decimal places.

      (Full Price Service/ Discount Service) is the best choice if probability of strong demand is less than or equal to____ . For values of "p" greater than____ , the full price service is (best/worst) choice.

In: Operations Management

Myrtle Air Express decided to offer direct service from Cleveland to Myrtle Beach. Management must decide...

Myrtle Air Express decided to offer direct service from Cleveland to Myrtle Beach. Management must decide between a full-price service using the company’s new fleet of jet aircraft and a discount service using smaller capacity commuter planes. It is clear that the best choice depends on the market reaction to the service Myrtle Air offers. Management developed estimates of the contribution to profit for each type of service based upon two possible levels of demand for service to Myrtle Beach: strong and weak. The following table shows the estimated quarterly profits (in thousands of dollars):

Demand for Service
Service Strong Weak
Full price $1380 -$650
Discount $1000 $460
  1. What is the decision to be made, what is the chance event, and what is the consequence for this problem?



    How many decision alternatives are there?

    Number of decision alternatives =

    How many outcomes are there for the chance event?

    Number of outcomes =
  2. If nothing is known about the probabilities of the chance outcomes, what is the recommended decision using the optimistic, conservative and minimax regret approaches?
    Optimistic approach Full price service
    Conservative approach Discount service
    Minimax regret approach Discount service
  3. Suppose that management of Myrtle Air Express believes that the probability of strong demand is 0.7 and the probability of weak demand is 0.3. Use the expected value approach to determine an optimal decision.

    Optimal Decision : Discount service
  4. Suppose that the probability of strong demand is 0.8 and the probability of weak demand is 0.2. What is the optimal decision using the expected value approach?

    Optimal Decision : Full price service
  5. Determine the range of demand probabilities for which each of the decision alternatives has the largest expected value. If required, round your answer to four decimal places.

    Discount service  is the best choice if probability of strong demand is less than or equal to_____________ . For values of  ? greater than___________ , the full price service is the best  choice.

In: Operations Management

1.) A leading magazine (like Barron's) reported at one time that the average number of weeks...

1.) A leading magazine (like Barron's) reported at one time that the average number of weeks an individual is unemployed is 29.8 weeks. Assume that for the population of all unemployed individuals the population mean length of unemployment is 29.8 weeks and that the population standard deviation is 5.9 weeks. Suppose you would like to select a random sample of 194 unemployed individuals for a follow-up study.

Find the probability that a single randomly selected value is between 29.1 and 30.2.
P(29.1<x<30.2)= ___?

Find the probability that a sample of size n=194n=194 is randomly selected with a mean between 29.1 and 30.2.
P(29.1<¯x<30.2)= ___?

2.) Scores for a common standardized college aptitude test are normally distributed with a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 98. Randomly selected men are given a Test Prepartion Course before taking this test. Assume, for sake of argument, that the test has no effect.

If 1 of the men is randomly selected, find the probability that his score is at least 583.3.
P( xx > 583.3) =  

If 5 of the men are randomly selected, find the probability that their mean score is at least 583.3.
P( ¯xx¯ > 583.3) =  

In: Statistics and Probability

According to an international aviation firm, fatal accidents occur in just around one in every five...

According to an international aviation firm, fatal accidents occur in just around one in every five million flights. With about 100,000 flights per 24 hour day worldwide, this means fatal accidents happen at a rate of 1 per 50 days. This translates to an average of 0.6 accidents per month. Assume that the number of fatal air accidents worldwide follows a Poisson distribution with λ=0.6 per month.

  1. Compute the probability that no fatal air accident will happen anywhere in the world during the month of March, 2020.
  2. Compute the probability that more than 3 fatal air accidents happen in a calendar month.
  3. Assume that fatal air accidents happen independent of one-another. Compute the probability that no fatal air accidents will happen anywhere in the world between March 1 and May 31, 2020.
  4. In the year 2018, 13 fatal air accidents were recorded. Was the year 2018 an outlier with respect to fatal air accidents? Compute the probability that a year would have 13 fatal air accidents. Note that your need to convert the monthly Poisson rate of 0.6 accidents to a yearly rate.

In: Statistics and Probability

According to an international aviation firm, fatal accidents occur in just around one in every five...

According to an international aviation firm, fatal accidents occur in just around one in every five million flights. With about 100,000 flights per 24 hour day worldwide, this means fatal accidents happen at a rate of 1 per 50 days. This translates to an average of 0.6 accidents per month. Assume that the number of fatal air accidents worldwide follows a Poisson distribution with l=0.6 per month.

  1. Compute the probability that no fatal air accident will happen anywhere in the world during the month of March, 2020.
  2. Compute the probability that more than 3 fatal air accidents happen in a calendar month.
  3. Assume that fatal air accidents happen independent of one-another. Compute the probability that no fatal air accidents will happen anywhere in the world between March 1 and May 31, 2020.
  4. In the year 2018, 13 fatal air accidents were recorded. Was the year 2018 an outlier with respect to fatal air accidents? Compute the probability that a year would have 13 fatal air accidents. Note that your need to convert the monthly Poisson rate of 0.6 accidents to a yearly rate.

In: Statistics and Probability

The time between arrivals of oil tankers at a loading dock at Prudhoe Bay is given...

  1. The time between arrivals of oil tankers at a loading dock at Prudhoe Bay is given by the following probability distribution:

Time Between Ship Arrivals (days)          Probability

1                                                                                    0.05

2                                                                                    0.10

3                                                                                    0.15

4                                                                                    0.25

5                                                                                    0.25

6                                                                                    0.15

7                                                                                    0.05

1.00

The time required to fill a tanker with oil and prepare it for sea is given by the following probability distribution:

Time to Fill and Prepare (days)                Probability

2                                                                                    0.10

3                                                                                    0.30

4                                                                                    0.40

5                                                                                    0.20

1.00

  1. Simulate the movement of tankers to and from the single loading dock for the first 100 arrivals. Compute the average time between arrivals, average waiting time to load, and average number of tankers waiting to be loaded. (hint: The COUNTIF function to count # of tankers in the system upon the arrival of the 11th tanker, =COUNTIF(A1:A10,">"&B11) // count cells A1:A10 greater than value in B11

A1:A10 = the departure times of tankers 1:10

B11 = the arrival time of tanker 11

  1. Discuss any hesitation you might have about using your results for decision making.

In: Statistics and Probability

Name___________________________________ SHORT ANSWER. Write the word or phrase that best completes each statement or answers the...

Name___________________________________

SHORT ANSWER. Write the word or phrase that best completes each statement or answers the question.

  1. 1) The probability that an employee at a company eats lunch at the company cafeteria is 1) 0.32. The probability that an employee is female is 0.62. The probability than an
    employee eats lunch at the employee cafeteria and is female is 0.21. What is the
    probability that a randomly chosen employee either eats at the cafeteria or is female?

  2. 2) In a recent article it was reported that 27.3% of all college students party during 2) weekdays, and 67% of these students plan on going to graduate school. What is the probability that a randomly-selected student party during weekdays and plans on
    going to graduate school?

  3. 3) There are five men and four women working on a project. To handle one particular 3) aspect of the project, a subcommittee needs to be formed. In the interest of balance, it is decided that the subcommittee will consist of two men and two women. How many combinations of this subcommittee are possible?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
A student has access to professor evaluations. Overall, he has enjoyed 70% of all classes he has taken. He finds that of the courses he has enjoyed, 13% were taught by professors with poor evaluations. 84% of the courses he has taken were taught by professors with good evaluations.

4) What is the probability that the class was taught by a professor with good evaluations 4) and that the student enjoyed the class?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
In a recent survey about US policy in Iraq, 62 % of the respondents said that they support US policy in Iraq. Females comprised 53% of the sample, and of the females, 46% supported US policy in Iraq. A person is selected at random.

  1. 5) What is the probability that the person we select is female and supports U.S. policy in 5) Iraq?

  2. 6) Are the events "does not support U.S, policy in Iraq" and "female" statistically 6) independent? Why or why not?

  3. 7) Suppose we select a supporter of US policy in Iraq, what is the probability that the 7) person we select is female?

  4. 8) Suppose we select a person who does not support US policy in Iraq, what is the 8) probability that the person is male?

        

1

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
James' Surfboard Shop makes surfboards by hand. The number of surfboards that James makes during a week depends on the wave conditions. James has estimated the following probabilities for surfboard production for the next week.

Number of Surfboards 5 6 7 8 9 10 Probability 0.13 0.22 0.31 0.17 0.13 0.04

Let A be the event that James produces more than seven surfboards. Let B be the event that James produces exactly six surfboards.

  1. 9) What is the probability of event A? 9)

  2. 10) What is the probability of the complement of A? 10)

  3. 11) What is the probability of the intersection of events A and B ? Why? 11)

  4. 12) Are events A and B collectively exhaustive? Why? 12)

  5. 13) The probability that a new small business closes before the end of its first year is 42%. 13) In addition, 37% of all new businesses are started by women. The probability that a
    new business is either owned by a woman or goes out of business is 62%. Your sister
    starts a new business. What is the probability her business will still open at the end of

    the first year?

  6. 14) In a survey of top executives, it was found that 17% had traveled internationally 14) on business. The probability of one of these executives fluently speaking a foreign
    language was found to be 10%. The probability that one of these executives neither
    spoke a foreign language nor had traveled internationally was 0.81. What is the

    probability that an executive who speaks a foreign language has traveled internationally?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
Consider a sample space defined by events A1, A2, B 1, B2. Let P (A1) = 0.40 , P (B 1 ! A1) = 0.60 and P (B 1 ! A2) = 0.70

                                

15) What is P(A2)?
16) What is P(A1 "B1)? 17) What is P(A1 "B2)? 18) What is P(A2 "B1)?

15) 16) 17) 18)

   

Thanks, please show all work!

In: Statistics and Probability