USA Today reported that about 47% of the general consumer population in the United States is loyal to the automobile manufacturer of their choice. Suppose Ford Motor Company did a study of a random sample of 1006 Ford owners and found that 490 said they would buy another Ford. Does this indicate that the population proportion of consumers loyal to Ford is more than 47%? Make conclusions at a 10% level of significance.

a) State the hypotheses to be tested.

b) Calculate and show the test statistic by hand.

c) Calculate the p-value using tables and illustrate the p-value by providing a graph showing appropriate area under the normal curve.

d) Confirm your results using Excel. Show Output.

e) Give your conclusions in a well-written sentence.

To what extent do you believe that the United States as a nation follows the five basic principles? Does it follow any other principles? Does the addition of these other principles (if there are any) constitute an improvement over Humanitarian Ethics? Why or why not?

Your answer should be in essay form, and a minimum of 500-700 words in length

New York City is the most expensive city in the United States for lodging. The mean hotel room rate is $204 per night.† Assume that room rates are normally distributed with a standard deviation of $55.

(a)

What is the probability that a hotel room costs $245 or more per night? (Round your answer to four decimal places.)

(b)

What is the probability that a hotel room costs less than $120 per night? (Round your answer to four decimal places.)

(c)

What is the probability that a hotel room costs between $210 and $300 per night? (Round your answer to four decimal places.)

Address the education system in America. In the United States, the post-secondary system is the premier in the world, but the K-12 system leaves much to be desired.

List two issues within the K-12 system that can be improved that will lead to a more efficient primary and secondary school system. Also, list one issue that you feel needs to be remedied in the college/university system as well.

The United States Golf Association tests golf balls to ensure that they conform to the rules of
golf. Balls are tested for weight, diameter, roundness and overall distance. The overall distance test is
conducted by hitting balls with a driver swung by a mechanical device nicknamed “Iron Byron” after the
legendary great Byron Nelson, whose swing the machine is said to emulate. Following are 100 distances
(in yards) achieved by a particular brand of golf ball in the overall distance test.

261.3 259.4 265.7 270.6 274.2 261.4 254.5 283.7 258.1 270.5
255.1 268.9 267.4 253.6 234.3 263.2 254.2 270.7 233.7 263.5
244.5 251.8 259.5 257.5 257.7 272.6 253.7 262.2 252.0 280.3
274.9 233.7 237.9 274.0 264.5 244.8 264.0 268.3 272.1 260.2
255.8 260.7 245.5 279.6 237.8 278.5 273.3 263.7 241.4 260.6
280.3 272.7 261.0 260.0 279.3 252.1 244.3 272.2 248.3 278.7
236.0 271.2 279.8 245.6 241.2 251.1 267.0 273.4 247.7 254.8
272.8 270.5 254.4 232.1 271.5 242.9 273.6 256.1 251.6 256.8
273.0 240.8 276.6 264.5 264.5 226.8 255.3 266.6 250.2 255.8
285.3 255.4 240.5 255.0 273.2 251.4 276.1 277.8 266.8 268.5

Construct a frequency distribution for these data using 13 bins. Draw the histogram

CASE STUDY

The winter was somewhat mild in some parts of the United States in February 2018. Although Spring Practice for football had not officially begun at Mid-Atlantic University, the players were expected to work out on their own informally and stay in top physical condition. An extremely close-knit group of athletes, mutually dedicated to the goal of winning the national championship in the Fall. When upper respiratory infections began circulating among the players, the team physician decided to send specimens to the State Health Department where virologists examined 23 specimens and obtained a positive test for influenza virus for 15 of them. They also confirmed that most of the virus isolates contained the influenza strain A/Victoria, a common type of influenza that occurs every winter. Unfortunately, they could not identify three virus isolates and were uncertain about four others. These seven specimens were forwarded to a federal laboratory where scientists specialize in infectious diseases.

Two months prior to the outbreak at the university, health officials in Vietnam had ordered the destruction of 12 million chickens after evidence surfaced that a "bird flu" strain of virus resulted in 20 confirmed influenza cases, 12 of which proved to be fatal. Health authorities in Hong Kong confirmed that the virus involved human-to-human transmission. Shortly before the campus outbreak at Mid-Atlantic University, local health officials temporarily closed a large meat distribution company in the area that supplied food to the school because its poultry was suspected of being infected with an influenza strain.

While the specimens were on their way to the federal laboratory, more players reported feeling ill and on February 15, an offensive tight-end named Dave Murray died in the university infirmary complaining of flu-like symptoms, his position coach had told him two days beforehand to take a week off and not return to workouts until he felt 100 percent healthy.The same day that he died, an opinion piece in a national daily newspaper by a prominent virologist noted that pandemics occur approximately every 30 years or so. The last one had swept the globe four decades earlier. Over the course of the next few days, State Health Department laboratory experts were unable to identify the strain of two additional influenza-positive specimens, one of which was obtained from the player's corpse. These specimens also were forwarded to federal scientists who discovered that the three previously unidentified isolates, along with the two new ones represented a different virus type. Even more serious was the possibility that the isolates might be closely related to an avian influenza virus believed to have swept the world in a pandemic in 1918, killing an estimated 50 million persons around the world and approximately one-half million victims in the United States. Hong Kong health authorities feared that the virus uncovered there was the same as the strain implicated in that earlier pandemic.

The many deaths that occurred then were due to an accompanying bacterial pneumonia prior to the advent of modern antibiotics.

Human-to-human spread of avian influenza had not been seen in the U.S, in at least 50 years and Dr. Lionel Traister, head of the federal infectious disease agency, contacted officials from other federal agencies and major State health departments around the country and invited them to an emergency meeting at his offices on March 1. Those scientists present who possessed a sense of public health history noted that the 1918 pandemic began relatively mildly in the spring and then returned with a vengeance in the fall, accounting for the vast majority of deaths. As a group, they agreed that the university outbreak could be a harbinger of more lethal and widespread disease on the not-too-distant horizon. No precise estimate of the extent of the risk ever was voiced, however, such as indicating that there might be a 25 percent chance the nation may be headed for a serious outbreak. All that could be stated was that there was a possibility of a pandemic. A question that loomed rather large in their minds was what to do about going public with these concerns. A delicate balance existed between sounding a warning to public health officials around the country and inciting a panic. The media frenzy associated with the outbreak of other influenzas in recent years provided a cautionary lesson. They decided to wait for the results of another round of tests, which in the next three days should confirm whether the virus uncovered at the university was avian influenza. Their worst fears soon were realized. The virus was avian influenza. Another emergency meeting was called on March 7 with the invitation list extended to virologists from private clinics, universities, and pharmaceutical companies. Meanwhile, the search for a further outbreak of the virus among the football team and among the rest of the student body had not yielded any new active cases nor had it spread beyond the campus to the community nearby. Outside the U.S., the World Health Organization had not reported any outbreaks of avian flu nor were any new cases reported in Hong Kong. Had the avian flu returned to its source among poultry or was it spreading in humans sub-clinically, waiting for an explosive eruption during the next flu season?

Although no new cases had been reported, the discussion at the meeting centered around: the logistics of vaccine production and distribution, field testing and licensing vaccines, and how to go about conducting a national immunization campaign. The general consensus was that even if all the vaccine needed could be produced by the beginning of the next flu season, which could occur in September or October, it still might take another 10 weeks to immunize the entire population of the U.S. Even then, it would take an additional two weeks after vaccination for protective immunity to be conferred. Stockpiling vaccine and waiting until an outbreak of flu occurred was not viewed as a workable option since infection produced disease much faster than a needle stick provided immunity. Only one person at this meeting, Dr. Virginia Bell who was director of a State health department on the West Coast, addressed the issue of stockpiling vaccine until clearer signals emerged that would warrant the start of a mass immunization program. Her basic concern was that caution should be exercised when considering the possibility of injecting any foreign substance into the bodies of more than 300 million Americans. She wanted to know at what point do preparations to immunize the entire population stop and the plan is changed to stockpile the vaccine instead. Bell's comments were made dispassionately and seemed to have little or no impact on the group. She did not argue her case any further.

Following the Chain of Command

Lionel Traister was regarded as a tough, highly competent, and occasionally wily career bureaucrat. Not only was he committed to advancing public health measures, he would never be accused of failing to advance himself when opportunity knocked. The appearance of the avian flu virus seemed to be one of those rare occasions when he could be at center stage to demonstrate to a wide audience both his own and his agency's capabilities. Strict caps were imposed on spending for that fiscal year because of a serious budget deficit. Recognizing that a national immunization program would require a supplemental appropriation, coupled with the fact that the federal bureaucracy was so slow moving, he knew that quick, decisive action on his part was imperative. The key was to frame the situation in urgent terms that persons higher-up in the administrative chain would find difficult to ignore. Consequently, he prepared a document that combined a sense of extreme urgency with a set of propositions that would be difficult to counter. On March 11, he contacted his superior, Dr. Myles Borash who was the Assistant Secretary of Health, to let him know that the memorandum was on its way to him. Traister followed procedures by addressing it to Department Secretary Wilma Kester from Assistant Secretary Borash. In the chain of command, Traister was one of six agency heads reporting to Borash. As Assistant Secretary, even though Borash was a highly regarded physician, he was at the low end of the political appointments chain. Essentially, his job was to assume responsibility for official health policy within the Administration. The facts presented in the memorandum were clear and understandable.

The second option proposed a minimal response, with the federal role limited to: advising vaccine manufacturers, providing a stimulus to State/local health departments to take action, and educating the public. Reasons favoring this choice included high visibility, less responsibility for the eventual outcome if it proved to be unfavorable, and reduced federal spending. Arguments against this approach were that drug companies might not produce enough vaccine and significant portions of the population such as the poor and the aged might never be immunized. The third option called for total federal intervention. The main argument favoring this course of action was that widespread availability and distribution of vaccine would be assured. Opposing arguments were the high cost of such a campaign and the fact that the American people would not be favorably disposed to a program that left out the private sector.

The last option involved a combined approach that would have the advantage of using both public and private sectors. The federal government could purchase the vaccine needed, have it tested for safety and efficacy by federal agencies, and distribute it through health departments at all levels of government as well as in hospitals, clinics, and physician offices. This choice would provide a good vehicle for having all facets of the health care system work together cooperatively to assure that every American would have an opportunity to be immunized. The memorandum concluded with a recommendation to pursue the fourth option.

On March 13, the memorandum was discussed at the weekly meeting of the Secretary. Recognizing the likelihood that there might not be a pandemic in the making, there still was a great amount of attention focused on what happened earlier in the 20^th century. Kester indicated that she wanted to meet with Borash and Traister in her office the following morning along with the directors of federal agencies involved in licensing vaccines and overseeing research on viruses. At this session one day later, Traister recommended that the federal government undertake action as recommended in the fourth option. When Kester asked what the probability of a pandemic is, the answer from Traister was "unknown." Nobody at the meeting was willing to assign a probability, but Traister said that it is greater than zero. When asked if it was possible to produce enough vaccine and have it administered, the response was in the affirmative, but with the caveat that time was of the essence and that a decision would have to be made quickly.

Hearing no dissent and determining that every person in the room was in accord with this recommendation, Secretary Kester decided that it was appropriate to bring this matter to the attention of White House staff. Her reasons were: the government's top scientists favored a course of action, a probability of a pandemic greater than zero had to be assumed, and that there would be no credible way after a pandemic struck of telling the public that the government had not prepared to meet the threat because the probability was low and the costs of an immunization program outweighed the benefits. She also had enough political acumen to realize that even if she rejected the memorandum, it still might be leaked to the media.

Kester wrote a memorandum that same day to the head of the federal budget office, indicating that a request for a supplemental appropriation of $1 billion would be forthcoming. She stated that: "There is evidence that there will be a major flu epidemic this coming fall. The indication is that we will see a return of a virus that killed 500,000 Americans in 1918. The projections are that this virus will kill as many as one-and-one-half million persons in this country. The drug industry must be advised now in order to have enough vaccine produced for a mass immunization program. A decision will have to be made in the next week or so."

Reactions at the State Level

Hiram Waters was only one of two individuals who raised questions about a national immunization program during the widely televised Congressional hearings. His closest friend was one of 60,000 fatalities around the nation during the 1957 Asian flu epidemic. He was a staunch advocate of pediatric immunization programs, but did not believe that there was sufficient evidence to warrant what was being proposed. He indicated that his State would accept the vaccine gladly, but none of it would be distributed to local health departments, private physician offices, and hospitals until new cases of the flu began to emerge.  

Bayside was the largest city in his State. It possessed three academic health centers and because of changes in the health care delivery system occasioned by the growth of managed care, these entities were in fierce competition with one another. In medical circles, an oft-repeated question was whether all three could survive. The State already had a huge surplus of physicians, more per capita than any other State in the Union, and a large oversupply of hospital beds.

Coastal Health Center was the most aggressive of the three health centers. Not only had its executives negotiated a contract with the largest managed care company in the State, they were raiding the Atlantic Health Center, the smallest of the three entities as measured by the size of medical staff and the number of inpatient beds. Atlantic, despite its smaller size was more of a boutique operation with a worldwide reputation for providing care of the highest quality.  

Richard Medvecky, CEO of Coastal, viewed Atlantic as a potential acquisition through merger.

He knew that if he ever made such a move, his chief competitor, Bayside Health Center, would counter it immediately. Administrators at Coastal and Bayside knew that an initial move by either side would trigger a bidding war, one in which both could end up being losers. Medvecky conceived of another way of achieving dominance in this highly charged health care environment. He began making offers to Atlantic physicians who were the chiefs of Neurology, Radiology, and Surgery to switch to Coastal. The offer consisted of: doubling their salaries, providing ten-year contracts with guaranteed hefty annual pay raises, and furnishing perquisites such as additional compensation to cover the costs of their children's college education. These offers were accepted.

Based on a case study on the outbreak of a disease along lines of avian influenza that cuts across national boundaries. Adopt the perspective of one of the actors in the situation (e.g., legislators, governmental agency directors, professional association director, vaccine manufacturers) regarding that person’s role in the episode as it unfolds and provide a critique of the performance of the other actors in dealing with the problem adequately.

In the United States, voters who are neither Democrat nor Republican are called Independent. It is believed that 10% of voters are Independent. A survey asked 22 people to identify themselves as Democrat, Republican, or Independent.

A. What is the probability that none of the people are Independent? Probability =

B. What is the probability that fewer than 5 are Independent? Probability =

C. What is the probability that more than 17 people are Independent? Probability =

The United States instituted tariffs (increase in price of Chinese goods imported into the US) on China selectively on 7/6/18 of 10% on ultimately $50billion of goods.

China retaliated in kind by imposing tariffs (increase in the price of US goods imported into China) on US on the same day by the same amount

On 5/15/19, The US increased the amount of the tariff to 25% and expanded the list of Chinese goods covered by the tariff.

Chinese responded in kind by the amount of the tariff and the list of goods covered.  

Using the production possibilities model, and making the assumptions that the US and China are the only countries in the world, and making the assumption of constant costs in production, and assume also that the 2 countries produce only 2 goods: Soybeans and Consumer goods, with the US having a comparative advantage in Soybeans, China having a comparative advantage in Consumer Goods, explain what you would expect to happen once these tariffs are imposed.  

Please include in your discussion, what effect, if any, these tariffs (trade war) would have on the costs of production, level of production, level of consumption in each country.

Finally, relax the assumption about US and China being the only two countries in the world. If other countries are allowed to trade with either China or the US, what would happen to the level of production and price of each good? Be sure to note all the assumptions you are making in your analysis. Your answers need not be lengthy, if you would like to include graphs that is ok.

New York City is the most expensive city in the United States for lodging. The mean hotel room rate is $204 per night (USA Today, April , ). Assume that room rates are normally distributed with a standard deviation of $55.

a. What is the probability that a hotel room costs $225 or more per night (to 4 decimals)?

b. What is the probability that a hotel room costs less than $140 per night (to 4 decimals)?

c. What is the probability that a hotel room costs between $200 and $300 per night (to 4 decimals)?

d. What is the cost of the 20% most expensive hotel rooms in New York City? Round up to the next dollar.

George Washington's Farewell Address To the People of the United States Which of Washington's positions as stated in his Farewell Address do you consider the most important for the country at the time? Then think about today. Which of Washington's positions still has validity for the country and should be implemented or possibly is implemented but in a way different from the way Washington believed? How should the government or people of the nation change in order to keep faith with Washington's vision? Use specific quotes from the speech to support your statements.