The following table shows the quarterly demand in thousands of cases, for a national beer distributor over the past four years. This data is also available in an Excel spreadsheet on Blackboard.

1.                                                                                         Using a smoothing coefficient of a = 0.3, exponentially smooth the series. Assume an initial forecast for the first quarter of 2015 of 300. Show:

- the MAD and MAPE

- a plot of the actuals and forecast on a properly labeled chart.

- the forecast for the first quarter of 2019.

About 85% of federal spending goes to the following areas, most of which are widely supported by the American public: Social Security and unemployment, Medicare and health, the military, interest on the debt, and veteran’s benefits. Is it possible to balance the budget without making major cuts in these areas? If not, what trade-offs do politicians face when making cuts to popular programs? Who benefits from the cuts and who is hurt?

About 85% of federal spending goes to the following areas, most of which are widely supported by the American public: Social Security and unemployment, Medicare and health, the military, interest on the debt, and veteran’s benefits. Is it possible to balance the budget without making major cuts in these areas? If not, what trade-offs do politicians face when making cuts to popular programs? Who benefits from the cuts and who is hurt?

1. Use an income/spending graph and IS curve graph to show the short- run impact of an increase in autonomous investment on output in the goods market. Include a brief explanation in your answer and be sure to properly label your graphs.

Pacific Healthcare is an investor-owned hospital chain that owns and operates nine hospitals in Washington, Oregon, and Northern California. You are a recent graduate of a prominent healthcare administration program and have just been hired by Washington Medical Center, Pacific’s largest hospital. Like all new management personnel, you must undergo three months of intensive training at the system level before joining the hospital. You begin by examining Pacific’s annual report to get some basic financial data. You search Yahoo! Finance, CNNMoney, Bloomberg, and MSN Money for current market data as well as analysts’ forecasts for Pacific Healthcare and the market. You discover that Pacific’s stock is currently selling for $8 per share, current dividend is $0.48 per share (paid on December 31, 2019), and the beta coefficient is 1.2. In addition, you learn that the yield on long-term Treasury bonds is 5.0 percent and that a market return of 11 percent is expected. Most analysts forecast that Pacific will grow about 10 percent per year for the next five years (2020-2024) and 4 percent per year thereafter (2025 and beyond). Based on these growth forecasts, you assembled the forecast dividends per share, as shown in the below exhibit. -

Historical Year/Dividends per share 2014/$0.215; 2015/$0.324; 2016/$0.353; 2017/$0.362; 2018/$0.391; 2019/$0.480

Forecast Year/Dividend per Share 2020/$0.528; 2021/$0.581; 2022/$0.639; 2023/$0.703; 2024/$0.773; 2025/$0.804; 2026/$0.836

Excel Problem (Answers to highlighted cells): If investors estimate that Pacific Healthcare will grow about 10 percent per year for the next five years (2020-2024), what constant growth rate (2025+) are they using to price the stock? (Hint: what constant growth rate (2025+) produces an actual December 31, 2019 stock price of $8?)

1. Since the SUTA rates changes are made at the end of each year, the available 2019 rates were used for FUTA and SUTA.

   Note: For this textbook edition the rate 0.6% was used for the net FUTA tax rate for employers.

   Example 5-10

   Karlson Software Company is located in State H, which enables employers to reduce their contribution rates under the experience-rating system. From 2006 to 2015, inclusive, the company's total contributions to state unemployment compensation amounted to $14,695. For the calendar years 2016 to 2019, inclusive, the contribution rate for Karlson was 2.7%.

   The contributions of each employer are credited to an account maintained by the State Unemployment Compensation Commission. This account is credited with contributions paid into the account by the employer and is charged with unemployment benefits that are paid from the account. Starting January 1, 2020, the contributions rate for all employers in State H will be based on the following tax rate schedule:

   Reserve Ratio	Contribution Rate
   Contributions falling below benefits paid	7.0%
   0.0% to 7.9%	5.5%
   8.0% to 9.9%	4.5%
   10.0% to 11.9%	3.5%
   12.0% to 14.9%	2.5%
   15.0% or more	1.5%

   The annual payroll for calculation purposes is the total wages payable during a 12-month period ending with the last day of the third quarter of any calendar year. The average annual payroll is the average of the last three annual payrolls. The SUTA tax rate for the year is computed using the information available (benefits received and taxes paid) as of September 30 of the preceding year.

   The schedule below shows the total payroll and the taxable payroll for the calendar years 2016 to 2019.

   	Calendar Year
   	2016		2017		2018		2019
   	Total Payroll	Taxable Payroll	Total Payroll	Taxable Payroll	Total Payroll	Taxable Payroll	Total Payroll	Taxable Payroll
   First Quarter	$12,000	$12,000	$11,000	$11,000	$13,000	$13,000	$10,000	$10,000
   Second Quarter	11,750	11,750	11,500	11,400	12,750	12,700	9,300	9,300
   Third Quarter	12,500	12,250	12,750	12,400	12,200	12,000	9,350	9,350
   Fourth Quarter	13,000	12,500	12,500	12,200	14,000	13,750	—	—

   Unemployment benefits became payable to the company's qualified unemployed workers on January 1, 2006. Between that time and September 30, 2019, total benefits amounting to $15,100.90 were charged against the employer's account. Compute:

   In your computations, round amounts to the nearest cent. Round your final percentage answers to one decimal place.

   a. Contribution rate for 2020.
   %

   b. Rate for 2020 if $2,000 additional benefits had been charged by mistake to the account of Karlson Software Company by the State Unemployment Compensation.
   %

Explain and graphically illustrate the impact of COVID-19 on consumer spending and aggregate demand using at least two (2) determinants of consumer spending.

A high-quality response must include the steps leading up to the change in the determinate. For example, if I were to make the claim that consumer debt increased, I would have to first explain how I moved from COVID-19 to a rise in consumer debt, and then trace out the effects on consumer spending and aggregate

Suppose that the federal government is considering two alternative spending bills. The first would purchase land for $80 billion to protect an endangered species, while the second would use the $80 billion to build new highways. How would these spending bills affect the cash and capital accounts of the federal government?

QUESTION TWO
Consider the hypothetical example of Dominion Island that has firms producing only two goods, gold and cotton, the proceeds of which it uses to purchase other goods and services from neighbouring islands through its banks. Assuming that all other required institutions in an economy are prevalent in this island, discuss the circular flow of income and spending in Dominion Island. No diagram is required